Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 30 2020 | 9182 | 41846 | 292 | 75 | 389 | 582 |
| December 31 2020 | 9259 | 42009 | 291 | 76 | 433 | 610 |
| January 01 2021 | 9295 | 42121 | 291 | 76 | 438 | 596 |
| January 02 2021 | 9295 | 42200 | 292 | 76 | 387 | 544 |
| January 03 2021 | 9375 | 42262 | 296 | 77 | 400 | 582 |
| January 04 2021 | 9427 | 42339 | 298 | 79 | 427 | 601 |
| January 05 2021 | 9464 | 42460 | 302 | 80 | 464 | 607 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 3.4 | 6.5% | 30 | 0.26% | 36 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 3.1 | 6% | 28 | 0.21% | 46 | 0.34% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 11.1 | 23.3% | 108 | 0.52% | 129 | 0.62% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 9.6 | 18.8% | 87 | 0.64% | 110 | 0.81% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 4.9 | 9.3% | 43 | 0.41% | 60 | 0.57% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 7.0 | 14.2% | 66 | 0.53% | 82 | 0.65% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 4.7 | 10.8% | 50 | 0.43% | 61 | 0.53% |
| 70+ | 5 | 5.7 | 11.2% | 52 | 0.5% | 83 | 0.79% |
| All ages | 37 | 49.4 | 100% | 464 | 0.44% | 607 | 0.58% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 30 2020 | 5839 | 24993 | 173 | 65 | 214 | 335 |
| December 31 2020 | 5902 | 25058 | 173 | 65 | 256 | 364 |
| January 01 2021 | 5923 | 25128 | 173 | 65 | 257 | 351 |
| January 02 2021 | 5923 | 25161 | 173 | 65 | 233 | 319 |
| January 03 2021 | 5972 | 25192 | 174 | 66 | 245 | 347 |
| January 04 2021 | 6004 | 25225 | 174 | 66 | 276 | 358 |
| January 05 2021 | 6015 | 25275 | 178 | 67 | 282 | 349 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.0 | 5.7% | 16 | 0.21% | 23 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 3.3 | 10.6% | 30 | 0.36% | 40 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 3.7 | 16% | 45 | 0.63% | 51 | 0.72% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 3.1 | 12.1% | 34 | 0.4% | 43 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 3.9 | 12.4% | 35 | 0.45% | 45 | 0.58% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 5.0 | 16% | 45 | 0.46% | 51 | 0.53% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.9 | 12.8% | 36 | 0.43% | 47 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 1 | 3.9 | 14.5% | 41 | 0.58% | 49 | 0.69% |
| All ages | 11 | 28.7 | 100% | 282 | 0.44% | 349 | 0.54% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 30 2020 | 4435 | 16713 | 190 | 57 | 205 | 350 |
| December 31 2020 | 4472 | 16758 | 190 | 57 | 214 | 340 |
| January 01 2021 | 4507 | 16795 | 190 | 57 | 215 | 328 |
| January 02 2021 | 4513 | 16831 | 190 | 57 | 205 | 304 |
| January 03 2021 | 4534 | 16855 | 190 | 57 | 192 | 304 |
| January 04 2021 | 4549 | 16859 | 190 | 57 | 183 | 291 |
| January 05 2021 | 4567 | 16901 | 192 | 57 | 201 | 275 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.4 | 6% | 12 | 0.22% | 13 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 3.4 | 16.4% | 33 | 0.61% | 44 | 0.81% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 3.3 | 13.4% | 27 | 0.6% | 35 | 0.77% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 4.0 | 18.4% | 37 | 0.68% | 49 | 0.9% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 2.9 | 11.9% | 24 | 0.48% | 39 | 0.78% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.4 | 15.9% | 32 | 0.47% | 46 | 0.68% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.0 | 9% | 18 | 0.28% | 22 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.9 | 9% | 18 | 0.28% | 27 | 0.43% |
| All ages | 18 | 23.3 | 100% | 201 | 0.44% | 275 | 0.61% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 30 2020 | 9994 | 45157 | 232 | 57 | 415 | 658 |
| December 31 2020 | 10125 | 45337 | 232 | 57 | 510 | 702 |
| January 01 2021 | 10158 | 45481 | 234 | 56 | 511 | 676 |
| January 02 2021 | 10160 | 45536 | 234 | 56 | 438 | 627 |
| January 03 2021 | 10229 | 45610 | 236 | 56 | 455 | 650 |
| January 04 2021 | 10307 | 45692 | 238 | 58 | 532 | 692 |
| January 05 2021 | 10386 | 45824 | 243 | 59 | 611 | 739 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 4.9 | 6.2% | 38 | 0.32% | 50 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 8.7 | 12.4% | 76 | 0.46% | 90 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 15.1 | 23.2% | 142 | 0.67% | 180 | 0.85% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 9.9 | 14.4% | 88 | 0.65% | 115 | 0.85% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 10.4 | 15.1% | 92 | 0.68% | 113 | 0.83% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 6.6 | 10% | 61 | 0.43% | 75 | 0.53% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 5.6 | 9% | 55 | 0.39% | 77 | 0.54% |
| 70+ | 7 | 7.0 | 9.7% | 59 | 0.45% | 78 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 79 | 68.1 | 100% | 611 | 0.52% | 778 | 0.66% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 30 2020 | 32956 | 293528 | 1001 | 182 | 1316 | 2103 |
| December 31 2020 | 33313 | 294043 | 1009 | 182 | 1535 | 2205 |
| January 01 2021 | 33539 | 294782 | 1009 | 183 | 1672 | 2220 |
| January 02 2021 | 33539 | 295259 | 1010 | 183 | 1534 | 2010 |
| January 03 2021 | 33807 | 295450 | 1016 | 182 | 1594 | 2167 |
| January 04 2021 | 34013 | 295937 | 1019 | 182 | 1639 | 2235 |
| January 05 2021 | 34142 | 296167 | 1037 | 190 | 1767 | 2275 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 10.4 | 5.2% | 92 | 0.15% | 117 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 20.0 | 10.8% | 190 | 0.27% | 247 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 33 | 45.3 | 22.6% | 399 | 0.38% | 514 | 0.49% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 37.9 | 19.2% | 340 | 0.44% | 418 | 0.55% |
| 40-49 | 24 | 28.9 | 14.4% | 255 | 0.39% | 344 | 0.52% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 24.1 | 13.5% | 238 | 0.36% | 303 | 0.46% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 15.4 | 8.1% | 144 | 0.26% | 191 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 10 | 11.1 | 6.2% | 109 | 0.22% | 141 | 0.29% |
| All ages | 129 | 193.1 | 100% | 1767 | 0.32% | 2275 | 0.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 30 2020 | 477292 | 2344771 | 21207 | 4818 | 20115 | 32494 |
| December 31 2020 | 481102 | 2350669 | 21350 | 4859 | 22490 | 32661 |
| January 01 2021 | 483007 | 2357057 | 21400 | 4869 | 21992 | 31331 |
| January 02 2021 | 484085 | 2361033 | 21449 | 4870 | 20491 | 28734 |
| January 03 2021 | 486531 | 2363175 | 21529 | 4875 | 20138 | 29354 |
| January 04 2021 | 487938 | 2365680 | 21580 | 4884 | 20039 | 29326 |
| January 05 2021 | 491341 | 2370485 | 21796 | 4979 | 22810 | 30326 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 140 | 123.0 | 5.1% | 1164 | 0.18% | 1540 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 375 | 276.7 | 11.4% | 2597 | 0.34% | 3489 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 551 | 403.7 | 16.7% | 3813 | 0.5% | 5037 | 0.67% |
| 30-39 | 550 | 386.6 | 16% | 3654 | 0.48% | 4785 | 0.63% |
| 40-49 | 505 | 336.7 | 14% | 3182 | 0.46% | 4238 | 0.61% |
| 50-59 | 550 | 361.3 | 15% | 3413 | 0.42% | 4534 | 0.56% |
| 60-69 | 390 | 267.4 | 11.2% | 2560 | 0.34% | 3414 | 0.45% |
| 70+ | 342 | 245.3 | 10.6% | 2427 | 0.38% | 3289 | 0.51% |
| All ages | 3403 | 2400.6 | 100% | 22810 | 0.39% | 30326 | 0.52% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 33.8 | 61.6 | 49.4 | 43 | 31.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 28.7 | 22.3 | 36.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60.8 | 23.3 | 26.7 | 41.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65.8 | 54.4 | 84.6 | 68.1 | 41.9 | 35.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.6 | 34.8 | 49.5 | 193.1 | 150.7 | 34.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.1 | 46.1 | 66.5 | 2400.6 | 2317.6 | 35.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 2.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.58 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4366"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges