My apologies for the delay in updates - I am back now after grading + vacation!

Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 30 2020 9182 41846 292 75 389 582
December 31 2020 9259 42009 291 76 433 610
January 01 2021 9295 42121 291 76 438 596
January 02 2021 9295 42200 292 76 387 544
January 03 2021 9375 42262 296 77 400 582
January 04 2021 9427 42339 298 79 427 601
January 05 2021 9464 42460 302 80 464 607
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 3.4 6.5% 30 0.26% 36 0.31%
10-19 2 3.1 6% 28 0.21% 46 0.34%
20-29 13 11.1 23.3% 108 0.52% 129 0.62%
30-39 5 9.6 18.8% 87 0.64% 110 0.81%
40-49 3 4.9 9.3% 43 0.41% 60 0.57%
50-59 7 7.0 14.2% 66 0.53% 82 0.65%
60-69 2 4.7 10.8% 50 0.43% 61 0.53%
70+ 5 5.7 11.2% 52 0.5% 83 0.79%
All ages 37 49.4 100% 464 0.44% 607 0.58%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 30 2020 5839 24993 173 65 214 335
December 31 2020 5902 25058 173 65 256 364
January 01 2021 5923 25128 173 65 257 351
January 02 2021 5923 25161 173 65 233 319
January 03 2021 5972 25192 174 66 245 347
January 04 2021 6004 25225 174 66 276 358
January 05 2021 6015 25275 178 67 282 349
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 2.0 5.7% 16 0.21% 23 0.3%
10-19 0 3.3 10.6% 30 0.36% 40 0.48%
20-29 1 3.7 16% 45 0.63% 51 0.72%
30-39 2 3.1 12.1% 34 0.4% 43 0.51%
40-49 1 3.9 12.4% 35 0.45% 45 0.58%
50-59 5 5.0 16% 45 0.46% 51 0.53%
60-69 1 3.9 12.8% 36 0.43% 47 0.56%
70+ 1 3.9 14.5% 41 0.58% 49 0.69%
All ages 11 28.7 100% 282 0.44% 349 0.54%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 30 2020 4435 16713 190 57 205 350
December 31 2020 4472 16758 190 57 214 340
January 01 2021 4507 16795 190 57 215 328
January 02 2021 4513 16831 190 57 205 304
January 03 2021 4534 16855 190 57 192 304
January 04 2021 4549 16859 190 57 183 291
January 05 2021 4567 16901 192 57 201 275
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 1.4 6% 12 0.22% 13 0.24%
10-19 1 3.4 16.4% 33 0.61% 44 0.81%
20-29 2 3.3 13.4% 27 0.6% 35 0.77%
30-39 4 4.0 18.4% 37 0.68% 49 0.9%
40-49 2 2.9 11.9% 24 0.48% 39 0.78%
50-59 4 4.4 15.9% 32 0.47% 46 0.68%
60-69 0 2.0 9% 18 0.28% 22 0.35%
70+ 3 1.9 9% 18 0.28% 27 0.43%
All ages 18 23.3 100% 201 0.44% 275 0.61%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 30 2020 9994 45157 232 57 415 658
December 31 2020 10125 45337 232 57 510 702
January 01 2021 10158 45481 234 56 511 676
January 02 2021 10160 45536 234 56 438 627
January 03 2021 10229 45610 236 56 455 650
January 04 2021 10307 45692 238 58 532 692
January 05 2021 10386 45824 243 59 611 739
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 7 4.9 6.2% 38 0.32% 50 0.42%
10-19 16 8.7 12.4% 76 0.46% 90 0.54%
20-29 19 15.1 23.2% 142 0.67% 180 0.85%
30-39 7 9.9 14.4% 88 0.65% 115 0.85%
40-49 10 10.4 15.1% 92 0.68% 113 0.83%
50-59 10 6.6 10% 61 0.43% 75 0.53%
60-69 3 5.6 9% 55 0.39% 77 0.54%
70+ 7 7.0 9.7% 59 0.45% 78 0.6%
All ages 79 68.1 100% 611 0.52% 778 0.66%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 30 2020 32956 293528 1001 182 1316 2103
December 31 2020 33313 294043 1009 182 1535 2205
January 01 2021 33539 294782 1009 183 1672 2220
January 02 2021 33539 295259 1010 183 1534 2010
January 03 2021 33807 295450 1016 182 1594 2167
January 04 2021 34013 295937 1019 182 1639 2235
January 05 2021 34142 296167 1037 190 1767 2275
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 7 10.4 5.2% 92 0.15% 117 0.19%
10-19 18 20.0 10.8% 190 0.27% 247 0.35%
20-29 33 45.3 22.6% 399 0.38% 514 0.49%
30-39 14 37.9 19.2% 340 0.44% 418 0.55%
40-49 24 28.9 14.4% 255 0.39% 344 0.52%
50-59 15 24.1 13.5% 238 0.36% 303 0.46%
60-69 8 15.4 8.1% 144 0.26% 191 0.35%
70+ 10 11.1 6.2% 109 0.22% 141 0.29%
All ages 129 193.1 100% 1767 0.32% 2275 0.42%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 30 2020 477292 2344771 21207 4818 20115 32494
December 31 2020 481102 2350669 21350 4859 22490 32661
January 01 2021 483007 2357057 21400 4869 21992 31331
January 02 2021 484085 2361033 21449 4870 20491 28734
January 03 2021 486531 2363175 21529 4875 20138 29354
January 04 2021 487938 2365680 21580 4884 20039 29326
January 05 2021 491341 2370485 21796 4979 22810 30326
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 140 123.0 5.1% 1164 0.18% 1540 0.24%
10-19 375 276.7 11.4% 2597 0.34% 3489 0.46%
20-29 551 403.7 16.7% 3813 0.5% 5037 0.67%
30-39 550 386.6 16% 3654 0.48% 4785 0.63%
40-49 505 336.7 14% 3182 0.46% 4238 0.61%
50-59 550 361.3 15% 3413 0.42% 4534 0.56%
60-69 390 267.4 11.2% 2560 0.34% 3414 0.45%
70+ 342 245.3 10.6% 2427 0.38% 3289 0.51%
All ages 3403 2400.6 100% 22810 0.39% 30326 0.52%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
58 33.8 61.6 49.4 43 31.9%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
54 28.7 22.3 36.6%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
60.8 23.3 26.7 41.9%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
65.8 54.4 84.6 68.1 41.9 35.2%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
41.6 34.8 49.5 193.1 150.7 34.7%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
52.1 46.1 66.5 2400.6 2317.6 35.7%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 2.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.58 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4366"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red